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My Favourite Quotes

chanman · Mar 18, 2018 · Leave a Comment

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results” attributed to Albert Einstein

“For there is no doubt that the most radical division that it is possible to make of humanity is that which splits it into two classes of creatures: those who make great demands on themselves, piling up difficulties and duties; and those who demand nothing special of themselves, but for whom to live is to be every moment what they already are, without imposing on themselves any effort towards perfection; mere buoys that float on the waves.” ― José Ortega y Gasset, The Revolt of the Masses

No man is an Island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the Continent, a part of the main; if a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as if a manor of thy friends or of thine own were; any man’s death diminishes me, because I am involved in Mankind; And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; It tolls for thee.
John Donne, Meditation XVII

“Gilgamesh, where are you hurrying to? You will never find that life for which you are looking. When the gods created man they allotted to him death, but life they retained in their own keeping. As for you, Gilgamesh, fill your belly with good things; day and night, night and day, dance and be merry, feast and rejoice. Let your clothes be fresh, bathe yourself in water, cherish the little child that holds your hand, and make your wife happy in your embrace; for this too is the lot of man.”
― Anonymous, The Epic of Gilgamesh

They danced down the streets like dingledodies, and I shambled after as I’ve been doing all my life after people who interest me, because the only people for me are the mad ones, the ones who are mad to live, mad to talk, mad to be saved, desirous of everything at the same time, the ones who never yawn or say a commonplace thing, but burn, burn, burn like fabulous yellow roman candles exploding like spiders across the stars and in the middle you see the blue centerlight pop and everybody goes “Awww!” Jack Kerouac, On The Road

“Before you eat or drink anything, consider carefully who you eat or drink with rather than what you are to eat or drink: for feeding without a friend is the life of a lion or a wolf.” Epicurus

“For believe me! — the secret for harvesting from existence the greatest fruitfulness and the greatest enjoyment is: to live dangerously! Build your cities on the slopes of Vesuvius! Send your ships into uncharted seas! Live at war with your peers and yourselves! Be robbers and conquerors as long as you cannot be rulers and possessors, you seekers of knowledge! Soon the age will be past when you could be content to live hidden in forests like shy deer! At long last the search for knowledge will reach out for its due: — it will want to rule and possess, and you with it!” ― Friedrich Nietzsche, The Gay Science

“As it is useful that while mankind are imperfect there should be different opinions, so it is that there should be different experiments of living…and that the worth of different modes of life should be proved practically, when anyone thinks fit to try them. It is desirable, in short, that in things which do not primarily concern others individuality should assert itself. Where not the person’s own character but the traditions or customs of other people are the rule of conduct, there is wanting one of the principal ingredients of human happiness, and quite the chief ingredient of individual and social progress.” (On Liberty, John Stuart Mill)

There lies the port; the vessel puffs her sail:
There gloom the dark, broad seas. My mariners,
Souls that have toil’d, and wrought, and thought with me—
That ever with a frolic welcome took
The thunder and the sunshine, and opposed
Free hearts, free foreheads—you and I are old;
Old age hath yet his honour and his toil;
Death closes all: but something ere the end,
Some work of noble note, may yet be done,
Not unbecoming men that strove with Gods.
The lights begin to twinkle from the rocks:
The long day wanes: the slow moon climbs: the deep
Moans round with many voices. Come, my friends,
‘T is not too late to seek a newer world.
Push off, and sitting well in order smite
The sounding furrows; for my purpose holds
To sail beyond the sunset, and the baths
Of all the western stars, until I die.
It may be that the gulfs will wash us down:
It may be we shall touch the Happy Isles,
And see the great Achilles, whom we knew.
Tho’ much is taken, much abides; and tho’
We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Ulysses, BY ALFRED, LORD TENNYSON

I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately, to front only the essential facts of life, and see if I could not learn what it had to teach, and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived. I did not wish to live what was not life, living is so dear; nor did I wish to practice resignation, unless it was quite necessary. I wanted to live deep and suck out all the marrow of life, to live so sturdily and Spartan-like as to put to rout all that was not life, to cut a broad swath and shave close, to drive life into a corner, and reduce it to its lowest terms, and, if it proved to be mean, why then to get the whole and genuine meanness of it, and publish its meanness to the world; or if it were sublime, to know it by experience, and be able to give a true account of it in my next excursion. — Henry David Thoreau

Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn’t do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. – Mark Twain

We are the Pilgrims, master; we shall go
Always a little further; it may be
Beyond that last blue mountain barred with snow
Across that angry or that glimmering sea,

White on a throne or guarded in a cave
There lies a prophet who can understand
Why men were born: but surely we are brave,
Who take the Golden Road to Samarkand.

We travel not for trafficking alone;
By hotter winds our fiery hearts are fanned:
For lust of knowing what should not be known,
We take the Golden Road to Samarkand.

The Golden Road to Samarkand, James Elroy Flecker

And my experience was this – and I try to describe it as accurately as I can. I had a curious sense of being literally in love with the world. There is no other way in which I can express what I then felt. I felt as if I could hardly contain myself for the love which was bursting within me. It seemed to me as if the world itself were nothing but love. We have all felt on some occasion an ardent glow of patriotism. This was patriotism extended to the whole Universe. The country for which I was feeling this overwhelming intensity of love was the entire Universe. At the back and foundation of things I was certain was love – and not merely placid benevolence, but active, fervent, devoted love and nothing less. The whole world seemed in a blaze of love, and men’s hearts were burning to be in touch with one another. (read more here) ‘The Heart of Nature’ by Lt-Col. Sir Francis Younghusband 

We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time.

Little Gidding, T.S. Eliot

WTF does it really mean to “be yourself”?

chanman · Mar 8, 2018 · Leave a Comment

Everyone agrees that you should be yourself. Just be yourself, they say. In all situations. but wtf does this actually mean?

Possible meanings:

  • Don’t try to be someone else or something else other than you are.
  • Live and act with no difference between the actual you and the you that you present to the world

How can we achieve this?

Tell people what you really think about everything – okay now this is really hard. If you’re a liberal and identify as such, having the odd racist, sexist, homophobic thought is going to be hard to articulate.

Wear what you want, read what you want, listen to what you want – don’t give a fuck about what you think others might think of you

Don’t try and be cool on social media – present warts and all

Rinse and repeat, everyday.

Inspired by Gary Vee’s Crush It and Crushing It

chanman · Feb 22, 2018 · Leave a Comment

You guys have got to check out these books.

Following his formula for crushing it and building my personal brand, this blog is going to be about road-testing self-improvement and life hacks. Stuff like minimalism, getting up early, getting a six pack, learning new things, marketing and making more money.

At the moment, I’m trying to do 30 days of daily exercise. It’s currently day 4 and it’s 4 x 25 push-ups.

Join me in this challenge and let me know how you’re going!

Blood on the streets: It’s definitely NOT easy to heed Warren Buffett’s advice to “Be greedy when others are fearful”

chanman · Feb 3, 2018 · Leave a Comment

Jesus Christ. What has happened to the crypto markets since the New Year?

There is literally blood on the streets.

Bitcoin (BTC) is down to USD 9,000 from highs of around USD 20,000 and the whole of the top 100 on coinmarketcap.com are also down at least 50% from their highs just a month ago.

Coins like Ripple are down more than this. XRP was around USD 3.65 on 8th Jan and now it’s trading at USD 0.8. If you’ve bought at the high, then you’re licking your wounds. Hope that you haven’t lost too much.

The crypto markets are shitting themselves.

The newest money that piled in at the end of 2017 have dashed, or they’re holding on whilst their assets have more than halved in a month.

That’s the volatility of these markets.

It’s clear that fear has taken over.

Every day, there’s talk of a regulatory crackdown. Or there’s been a hack of an exchange (Coincheck). Or there’s a scam behind a coin (Tether and Bitfinex).

Why wouldn’t you be shitting yourself? Pundits are now talking about Bitcoin going down to zero.

Are they all wrong? Is it possible that they’re right and I’m wrong? Am I just being a fanatic by thinking that this is just noise and that this will just blow over?

Perhaps.

I’m certainly not thinking about selling my house and putting it into crypto.

But maybe the fear has been overdone.

Let’s look at it from a different angle.

Have the projects themselves changed in the last month? No. They’ve very probably carried on working and developing. Monero’s developers haven’t been standing still whilst the markets shat themselves. They’ve been improving their code and making new features.

Value and price are different things. To quote Buffett again: Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

The value of the underlying has only been increasing in the last month.

Developers must have been working behind the scenes, at Decred, Bitcoin, Augur, OmiseGo, Cardano. Everywhere. These projects must all be better than they were a month ago.

The real questions are:

  • Are the fears about regulatory crackdowns real?
  • And if not, then have crypto prices gone down too far vs this risk?

Are the fears about regulatory crackdowns real?

The worst case scenario is that all governments around the world ban and criminalise holding and trading any crypto asset. This would mean that I could be sent to jail for holding and trading Bitcoin. Likelihood = low. Different countries have different approaches to crypto. See this wiki article about different countries’ approaches. This means it’s likely that some countries would be pro-crypto.

The next worst case scenario is that your own country bans crypto. I’m in the UK and I don’t think that this would happen. From the same wiki article above:

“As of 2017, the government of the United Kingdom has stated that bitcoin is unregulated and that it is treated as a ‘foreign currency’ for most purposes, including VAT/GST.

Bitcoin is treated as ‘private money’. When bitcoin is exchanged for sterling or for foreign currencies, such as euro or dollar, no VAT will be due on the value of the bitcoins themselves. However, in all instances, VAT will be due in the normal way from suppliers of any goods or services sold in exchange for bitcoin or other similar cryptocurrency. Profits and losses on cryptocurrencies are subject to capital gains tax.”

It doesn’t look like from the above that Bitcoin or other cryptos are viewed as heinous in the UK and I think therefore that it’s unlikely to be banned in the UK.

And if not, then have crypto prices gone down too far vs this risk?

If we think that people see this regulatory risk as real, then we can assume that this is baked into the current prices of cryptos.

I.e. if the regulatory risk was removed or felt by investors to have been removed, then we might think that the prices will increase towards previous levels.

Is this as far down as we’re likely to see it?

Let’s look at Bitcoin as a proxy for the entire crypto market. The chart below from coinmarketcap.com is for the last year:

Look at the grey bars at the beginning between 6th Nov 2017 and 29th Jan 2018. That’s volume. That’s the amount of Bitcoin that changed hands. Compare that to the date period to the left of that. The volumes really only started picking up in November. That volume we might think is new money. Retail investors who have piled in with FOMO. Now these same new retail investors AKA weak hands have been shaken out.

Where is the support level?

If we go by the volume example above, we might think that the price level before volumes became enormous (relatively), would be a good guide:

I’m going to call it as the bottom price levels that we could expect are around USD 5,000. From here, it will be about building momentum again and positive news around crypto.

Should you wait for that? I’m not sure as it may never get down to those levels again, and so it might be worth a nibble at these prices to at least get a measure of cheapness.

What do you think? Let me know in the comments below.

How and why to buy Binance (BNB) (potential 2,000% upside from here)

chanman · Jan 6, 2018 · Leave a Comment

buy Binance (BNB)

Further to my last post about buying riskier crypto assets, one of the assets on my watchlist was Binance Coin (BNB). This post is about how and why to buy Binance (BNB).

How did I hear about Binance (BNB)?

I first used Binance, the exchange, when I bought some Verge (XVG). I really enjoyed how easy it was get setup and how easy it was to trade on there, so I had a positive impression of the brand itself.

One of the heavily promoted (in terms of visual positioning on the Binance site was the BNB/BTC trading pair. I looked up BNB on coinmarketcap.com and it’s been steadily chunking out significant price rises in recent weeks. So I decided to look into this further.

Where do I think that the Binance (BNB) price could get to?

Check out this screenshot from coinmarketcap.com taken at 12.45pm UK time on 6th January 2018:

buy Binance (BNB)

That’s a market cap of USD 1.6bn, with a circulating supply of 99m BNB with a total supply of 199m BNB, a current price of USD 16.87.

What’s going to drive the price?

We know that price is a function of supply and demand, and for price appreciation, it’s about limiting supply and increasing demand.

Demand will increase because:

Binance itself is an ever increasingly popular crypto-exchange making general exposure to Binance (BNB) ever greater

  • It’s popular because it’s an easy way to swap between altcoins and it lists ever more exotic coins.
  • Plus you don’t need to provide verification documents unless you want to withdraw more than 2 BTC within a 24hr period.

There is also a solid use case for Binance (BNB)

Actual use cases for crypto coins/tokens/projects are few and far between. An actual use case gets lost in the frenzy for speculation. However, Binance (BNB) has a solid use case, namely that if you use it to pay for commissions when trading on the Binance exchange, you get a 50% discount on the fees you pay. A 50% discount! Why wouldn’t you look into owning a few? (This will reduce in subsequent years of the exchange’s life. See more details here) And why when you own a few, would you let any go outside of paying for trading fees on Binance? In which case, demand isn’t going down, it’s actually going up. You also get a discount on ICOs offered through Binance.

Supply will reduce because:

Binance is buying back Binance (BNB) with profits generated by its exchange. Then it burns (destroys) those buy backs. This is similar to when a company buys back and cancels its shares. This act literally limits supply. In fact, it will reduce supply.

From this article on their website, Binance will:

In accordance with our whitepaper, each quarter, we will use 20% of our profits to buy back and burn BNB, until 100MM BNB are burned. We will buy back and burn 986,000 BNB in 2017 Fall based on our profits in this quarter.

So how did I get to 2,000% upside from here? Here’s the maths:

So if the total supply above is 199m BNB, and if Binance is successful and able to burn 100m BNB, then the total supply of Binance (BNB) will literally be halved. If demand stays constant as is, then this will double the current price of Binance (BNB).

Let’s try and speculate on potential upside using relative/comparative market caps.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) current market cap is USD 283 billion and ranked number 1 on Coinmarketcap.com.

Ripple’s (XRP) current market cap is USD 123 billion and ranked number 2 on Coinmarketcap.com.

Ethereum’s (ETH) current market cap is USD 100 billion and ranked number 3 on Coinmarketcap.com.

Binance (BNB)’s current market cap is USD 1.6 billion and ranked number 29 on Coinmarketcap.com.

Based on all of the above reasoning, it’s completely feasible that Binance (BNB) could get to 10x its current market cap in 2018 without a full ‘buyback-and-burn’.

With the full ‘buyback-and-burn’,  this would double (as explained above).

So we get a conservative 2,000%. (10x is 1,000%).

From the current price of about USD 17, that makes a price target of about USD 350.

How to buy Binance (BNB)

Log into your Binance account or open up an account if you haven’t got one.

Using existing funds (other cryptocurrencies), look at the relevant BNB trading pair. (If you don’t have any funds deposited on the exchange to use, deposit some first. I use Bitcoin as my go-to currency to trade/swap into other cryptos, and I’ll use Bitcoin (BTC) in this explanation.

Here’s the trading screen:

Go to the Buy BNB box and click into the Amount field. This will reveal how much BNB you could buy:

You can see that I have 0.02073007 BTC available in my account and that I could use this to buy a maximum amount of 18.47 BNB. (This amount of BNB could have been more or less depending on how much BTC I had in my account (or whatever cryptocurrency you were using to trade into BNB))

Now simply, hit ‘Buy BNB’ and you’ve put in an order to buy Binance (BNB).

Go to your Open Orders at the top of the screen:

And very soon, this trade will have settled – i.e. you will have some Binance (BNB)! You can check this in your Trade History tab.

Here’s my current balance of BNB (I will add to this soon):

buy Binance (BNB)

Further reading

I got a lot of value from reading the following articles. Check them out:

Determining the intrinsic value of the Binance Coin (BNB) and why you should be buying it

Guide to Buying Binance Coins (BNB)

Here’s the official Binance site (this link has a referral bonus for me in that if you use it, I get 50% of any trading fees from any trades you make. But don’t worry, you don’t have to use the link – I won’t be offended!)

Important disclaimer

This blog, Adventures In Crypto, and its contents are for informational and entertainment purposes only and should NOT be construed as investment advice. Always consult a licensed investment professional before making important investment decisions. The opinions expressed here are those of its writer Edmond Chan and he shall NOT be liable for losses resulting from investment decisions based on information or viewpoints presented on Adventures In Crypto.

What do you think of the prospects for Binance (BNB)? Do you agree with the reasoning above? Let me know in the comments below!

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