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What other cryptocurrencies am I going to buy?

chanman · Aug 12, 2017 · Leave a Comment

It’s not easy to find sites on Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies that you can trust.

This is the Wild, Wild West.

One site I trust is https://coinmarketcap.com  (I trust it because of the amount of traffic they get. I use a Chrome extension called SimilarWeb which is free and this estimates the amount of traffic that goes to a site. CoinMarketCap has around 52m visitors a month which indicates to me that it’s a valid site that people trust. That’s good enough for me.)

Click on this link and you will see the following screen:

(I’ve screen-shotted just the first 11 cryptocurrencies because I couldn’t fit them into the screenshot)

Anyway, look at the list. These are arranged in order of market capitalisation (market cap). For example, Bitcoin’s market cap at the time this screenshot was taken isUSD 62,530,606,485 (yes that’s USD 62 billion). This is calculated by multiplying the price of a Bitcoin (USD 3,789.22) by the number of Bitcoins in issue (Circulating Supply) (16,502,237).

Look at this next screenshot of CoinMarketCap:

Look below the CNBC advert and you’ll see a figure for BTC (Bitcoin) dominance which shows the percentage of BTC’s market cap as opposed to the market cap of all cryptocurrencies put together. I.e. Bitcoin is nearly 50% of the overall cryptocurrency market!

Anyway back to the first screenshot:

I’m going to buy all of the above as they are the most established (based on market cap).

But first, I’m going to buy Monero, which is just out of sight on the above screenshot, at number 12 by market cap.

My next question is how to weight/allocate across the cryptocurrencies I’m going to buy.

What are you buying? What cryptocurrencies do you hold? Let me know in the comments below.

This is my cryptocurrency investment strategy

chanman · Aug 12, 2017 · 1 Comment

As I mentioned in my last post, my strategy is driven by FOMO.

Basically, I don’t want to miss out on the big gains that I think are to come within the crypto space.

This means that I don’t just want to hold Bitcoin. I want to hold a basket of cryptocurrencies.

Remember that I’m driven by FOMO. So what if Bitcoin goes up in the medium term by 200%. That would be great if I hold it. But what about if, in the same timeframe, other cryptocurrencies went up by 2000%? It happens. Well I’d be gutted obviously. Wouldn’t you be? I’d have the slowlane Bitcoin whilst other cryptos turned out to be fastlane.

Long or short?

Definitely long. Why would you go short on any cryptocurrencies after seeing their collective performance over the last few months. Anyone who went short without a stop loss would have been heavily punished. I wouldn’t even go short without very good reason in equities. For very good reason, think 2008 when everything was falling. That would be a fairly valid reason for going short on a market (not that I was short anything at the time).

Going short would also go against my reasons for investing: I believe that cryptocurrencies are going to rise. Maybe not all of them, but the best of them will rise.

Active or passive?

Pretty passive. Like I said in the last paragraph, I’m not going to be trading in and out nor am I going to be going short. This would go against my driver of FOMO. To take the first scenario, if I was trading in and out, there might be a day, where having exited (sold) my position to realise some gains, that that particular cryptocurrency popped upwards. I would be out of the potentially big move. I would have lost sight of the big picture, the overall plan, for just a bit of money and maybe the psychological thrill of being right. (But actually wrong)

Timeframe

Long term. I’m in this for the long haul. Bitcoin was a fraction of a dollar in 2008 when it started. Now it’s popped to USD 3,500. All my life, I’ve been an impatient investor/speculator. This is one thing I’m prepared to wait a long time for. I’m going to buy some cryptocurrencies, top up here and there, maybe buy more on the dips and then forget about it. I’m happy to wait years.

What cryptocurrencies am I going to buy?

I’ll answer this question in the next post.

In the meantime, let me know your cryptocurrency strategy in the comments below.

 

How nagging FOMO drives my cryptocurrency speculating strategy

chanman · Aug 11, 2017 · Leave a Comment

I read somewhere that you’re either an investor or you’re a speculator.

I’m definitely a punter, so much more towards the speculator side of things.

In the past, I’ve loved financial spreadbetting and gambling. It appeals to me much more than investing methodically in index tracker funds and equities.

Speculating hasn’t worked out too well for me in the past. I once lost a fair bit of money on an oil explorer called Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP), both in capital and in unrealised gains. It hurt a fair and I’ve learned not to risk too much of my overall capital on a speculative punt.

Why speculate on cryptocurrencies?

Cryptocurrencies have exploded in the last couple of years and I’m keen to get in now so as not to miss any gains in the future.

Naysayers have been predicting the bursting of the bubble for a while now but I don’t care.

I love a punt.

Bitcoin could go to zero in the next few years BUT it could go to USD 10,000 or even more.

What is the probability of it going to zero? It’s greater than the S&P going to zero. Is it greater than a FTSE100 company going to zero? Perhaps.

What is the probability of it popping to USD 10,000? It’s certainly possible.

It’s this second probability that makes me want to get into crypto.

Bitcoin has gone from USD 1,000  in February 2017 to USD 3,500 in August 2017. That’s over 200% in just six months! Who’s to say that it wouldn’t bag again? And again? We’re not even out of the early adoption phase. When it becomes more widely adopted, given it’s limited and finite supply, who’s to say that it won’t explode in price.

I’d be completely gutted if I didn’t have any exposure to crypto and it went to the moon.

Complete and utter FOMO.

So I’m getting in now. At least if it goes to the moon, I’ll have some skin in the game.

Are you a speculator or an investor? Do you get FOMO? Let me know in the comments below.

These 11 things can make you the most positive person you’ve ever met

chanman · Jun 24, 2017 · 1 Comment

I took a Strengths Finder test a few years ago and it said that my number one strength was positivity.

My number one strength! I couldn’t fucking believe it.

I wasn’t very happy about this because it’s a bit lame really. Definitely not as cool or impressive as say your number one strength being ‘Strategy’. (That did actually come up as my fifth best strength.)

Here’s the results I got:

how to be more positive
Gallup Strengths Finder results

When someone asks you what your strengths are, you don’t really want to say positivity because what does that even mean?!

Recently though, I’ve started to think differently about this.

It comes up again and again. People often remark that I’m ‘always so positive’ or that I’m the ‘most positive person they’ve ever met’.

So maybe I’m in the 98th percentile for positivity. That’s pretty good right?

Maybe you can’t change your nature so maybe it’s time to embrace it.

I started thinking that maybe this is something I can help people with. Maybe I could teach you how to be more positive.

So here goes:

1. Know that you can always change your mental state

You might have woken up to an argument with your partner and you might have left the house in a bad mood. You can’t shake it off on your commute and you’re still fuming about it at work.

When you’re in a bad mood, the stress hormone cortisol is pumping through your system and it’s affecting your ability to concentrate and be creative.

At its worst, this feeling can last for the whole day.

Think about the craziness of that. A whole day ruined because of an argument.

Now let’s rewind.

Assuming that you weren’t able to resolve the argument before you left the house, you have to find a way to shake off that bad mood as soon as possible.

If you can’t, then you’re not in control of your emotions. Your emotions are controlling you.

Compartmentalise. Try to put it to one side. Your home’s side. Your domestic side.

Or choose to view the argument in a different way.

Look at it from a more positive point of view. The argument has raised important points that it’s better that they’ve been raised rather than allowed to fester. That realisation is where progress comes from. Or that it’s going to be resolved soon and your relationship will be the stronger for it.

You’re in control of your thoughts and your emotions. Don’t be a slave to your emotions. Control them instead.

2. Know how to whip yourself up into a higher energy state

Energy and your mental state are very closely related.

Think about it. When you’re feeling sluggish and low-energy, do you feel positive or negative?

You could be faced with the same situation, but if you come into it with high energy, you’re more likely to feel positively about that particular situation.

On the flip side, if you come into that same situation feeling groggy, then you’re less likely to feel positive about that situation.

Look at how boxers or MMA fighters come into the arena. They’re jogging on the spot. They’re throwing out combinations of punches. They’re jabbing the air. They’re tapping themselves in the face. Whipping themselves up into a higher state of energy, readying themselves for the fray ahead.

Or look at Tony Robbins before he comes on stage. He’s jumping on a trampoline, breathing deeply, big smile on his face, geeing himself up just like a boxer does. And it works.

In the mornings, try going for a short jog with a sprint finish or go to the gym and lift some heavy weights. Or if you don’t have time, simply get on the floor by your bed and do push ups until fatigue. Then sing loud along to your favourite song.

You can control your energy levels. Try the tips above.

3. Think about why you’re a lucky bastard

If you think you’ve had a bad day, try this exercise. It’s pretty similar to Gratitude.

I use this on my wife when she’s down.

So for example, in the heat of summer, our flat is super hot. It’s around 31 degrees right now. Now we could moan about this, and say how bad our lives are right now.

But I always say, stop being a moaner. At least we’re not in Iraq right now fighting wars in 50 degree heat, with 100lbs of kit and no water. Compared to that, we’re pretty goddamn lucky.

Or I think about how lucky I am to have two legs, a good brain, all my senses intact, some skills and knowledge, how lucky I was to have great parents and a great sister who cared for me and gave me a great education or how lucky I am to have a great wife who looks after me and loves me, or to have great friends who I’ve known all my life, or have a good job or to have the ability to travel and to be free of mental and physical illness.

Think about why you’re a lucky bastard and do this exercise every day and whenever you’re down.

Start from the beginning:

You’re lucky that:

  • You’re alive!
  • You have a roof over your head
  • You’ve got friends (hopefully)
  • You’ve got a family
  • You have some money
  • You have food
  • You live in a free society (hopefully)
  • You have a working mind

You carry on. After about ten items you’re lucky for, you’ll start to feel really good about yourself and your situation. Repeat daily.

4. Improve your self talk

I hear so much bad self talk every single day.

A colleague might say ‘I can’t do that. I’m not good enough.’

My wife might say that she’s ‘feeling fat’.

And these are just the words they say out loud. To another person.

Can you imagine what they say to themselves in their own heads?

Why are they so harsh on themselves?

Now you might say that maybe what they’re saying is true. But I can tell you that it’s never really true.

Language is so important and the words you use can have good and bad effects on you and the people around you.

Let’s go back to the previous examples:

My colleague could have said, ‘I’m not sure that I could do that yet but I’m sure I could learn.’

Doesn’t that sound more positive? Do you think my colleague would be more upbeat after saying that than the words ‘I can’t do that. I’m not good enough’?

Start reframing the way you talk to yourself.

Instead of ‘I can never lose weight because I’m destined to be a fattie’ why not reframe it and say ‘I’ve never found it easy to lose weight but this time I’m going to follow a new eating and exercise plan and I’m going to lose weight.’

Instead of saying ‘I can’t learn a new coding language because I’m not clever enough’ say ‘I will find the right training programme that will fit the way that I learn best and I will learn whatever I put my mind to’.

Improve your self talk now. Whenever you catch yourself giving yourself bad self talk, stop and reframe.

Talk to yourself the way that you’d give encouragement to your best friend or your child.

You wouldn’t crush them would you? Of course not; you’d motivate and uplift.

Do the same for yourself.

5. Know that you could learn whatever it is you put your mind to

I suppose this is actually a form of confidence but I do feel that I could learn anything that I put my mind to.

Now that might not be objectively true because maybe quantum physics is actually beyond me. But I do believe that if I worked on it for 100 hours and got the best teachers and they found a way that I could relate to the material best, then I could have a decent grasp of the subject.

Rightly or wrongly, that’s my belief.

This is also known as a Growth Mindset, first coined by Carol Dweck.

She contrasts a fixed vs a growth mindset.

A fixed mindset is where a person believes that their abilities and personalities are largely ‘fixed’ and unchanging. Those are just the cards that you’ve been dealt. When you succeed, you attribute that success to your innate abilities and when you fail, you attribute that failure to your innate lack of abilities. Failure is seen as a reflection of your fixed abilities. Think of the person who believes they lack artistic talent. ‘I can’t draw. Never been good at it. Never will be.’

A growth mindset on the other hand believes that abilities are not fixed. They can grow or recede. They might be bad at drawing but faced with needing to become better at drawing, they will find a course and learn how to become better at drawing. They will believe that their drawing ability can improve.

Which do you think will make you more positive?

Growth mindset of course.

Imagine your life with a growth mindset.

You’d be planning a trip to Spain and with 4 weeks to go, you might buy a beginner’s guide to Spanish, because you’d be confident in your ability to learn some Spanish.

You might not be a good swimmer but one day you decide to learn once and for all.

A growth mindset just opens up possibilities and horizons for you. Isn’t that better than walking round with a fixed mindset all the time?

To move from a fixed mindset to a growth mindset isn’t easy but the best way is to look at people you know who you know didn’t have that much talent in a particular field but still became good at it.

Okay not Tiger Woods as you might think he has innate God-given talents (even though he has practiced for tens of thousands of hours since he was 18 months old).

I knew a guy at university had never played golf before university. But he fell in love with the game and all his friends played golf. He decided that he wouldn’t settle for being an average golfer. He took serious lessons and he practiced diligently. In two years, he was down to a six handicap. (That’s really good by the way)

When you think about people like my golfer friend, that’s when you realise that maybe abilities aren’t so fixed after all.

Take inspiration from his example and go after what you want.

Here’s a great article from Brainpickings about the difference in the two mindsets.

6. Know that you can always change your situation

Okay maybe not if you’re in prison.

However, assuming you’re not in prison, you can always change your situation.

Not enjoying your job? Change your job.

In a relationship you’re unhappy in? Leave that relationship.

Not that easy you say? Why isn’t it?

When did you become so helpless?

It’s like the story of the elephant and the rope.

A guy walked past an elephant in a circus and was amazed that this huge creature was held by a small rope on one of its rear legs attached to a tiny pole in the ground. He wondered why the elephant didn’t just walk off effortlessly pulling the rope and pole out of the ground.

He asked a circus worker why this was the case.

The circus worker replied that the same rope had been around the elephant since he was a very small baby elephant. At that age, the rope was enough to keep him from escaping. After trying a few times, he realised that he couldn’t break free of the rope. So he stopped trying. Even now, as an adult elephant and now easily strong enough to break free of a hundred ropes, he doesn’t believe he can, so he doesn’t even try.

Sad story eh?

Now let’s go back to the earlier examples.

Don’t think you can change your job? What’s your invisible ‘rope’? Is it really that hard to change your job? Pull out the figurative rope and pole. Look for new jobs and apply to them. Put enough effort into it and you’ll find a great new job.

Can’t leave your relationship? Do the right thing and have a conversation with your partner. Tell them you’re not happy at the moment and tell them how you feel. You’ll either improve your relationships or you’ll end the relationship (or maybe they will).

Know that you can always change your situation.

7. Enjoy being around people. Enjoy your fellow man.

I love being social. I can’t be social all the time – like most people, I need time to myself. But on the whole, I like to be around people.

Be happy to see people you know. Give people hugs, greet them with a big smile and tell them it’s great to see them again. Ask how things are. Give them a gentle tease if they can take it.

Organise dinners, parties, BBQs, reunions, poker nights, booze ups, anything. Be a giver not a taker.

8. Surround yourself with positive people

And if you can’t find them, find them online.

I mean on podcasts or on YouTube.

Check out this guy called Charlie Houpert who has a channel called Charisma on Command where he dissects and teaches you how to have much stronger interpersonal skills.

Or Tony Robbins. I’m sure you’ve heard of him.

Or Casey Neistat.

Or Jocko Willink.

9. Eliminate or minimise negative people

The mirror of the previous point. You know someone who is generally negative about stuff. Just cut them out. Energy is a precious thing. Don’t let someone always keep sapping your energy. You’ve worked hard to raise your positivity and your energy levels. Why should the same people bring you down.

Cut them out. Or if you can’t because maybe they’re your family, then tell them not to be so depressing. If that doesn’t work, then maybe you need to see them less. It might sound harsh but if you don’t then you will feel way less energetic and less positive than if you did cut them out.

10. Know how your body affects your mental state, both positively and negatively

I’ve written earlier blog posts on how your body affects your mind.

We saw from Amy Cuddy how great posture can affect your confidence levels. Think about the dominant pose before an interview. How posing with your arms aloft and chest puffed out can increase testosterone in your body. Testosterone, amongst many other things, is the confidence and dominance hormone.

Conversely, we know from Cuddy also that if you huddle up with your shoulders rounded and slightly stooped that you lose that feeling of dominance and you become more fearful.

11. Consume mostly uplifting and positive content

If you read the Daily Mail (Daily Hate), watched only the BBC news channel, listened to old Radiohead and emo, do you think you’d be feeling positive after all that?

Of course not.

What about if you woke up and listened to the overture of The Marriage of Figaro or the overture to Tannhauser?

Then you read a few pages of Tolstoy’s War and Peace. Then you watched an animated book review on FightingMediocrity’s Youtube channel.

Then you read the front page of the Financial Times.

Then you listened to a quality podcast like Jocko Willink’s.

How do you think you’d feel after that quality content binge? A bit better than the previous diet of negativity, right?

Your turn

Hopefully, you’ve learned some useful tips on how to be more positive. Start putting these into action today and let me know how you got on!

Is resoling quality English shoes worth it?

chanman · Jun 17, 2017 · 3 Comments

I’ve got three pairs of Grenson shoes. One pair got completely ruined on my first date with my now wife.

I was wearing a blue blazer, red trousers and these brown, half-brogues and the date was going swimmingly. We were in Soho, London, when suddenly there was torrential rain. The narrow streets of Soho were flooded and in our walk to Tottenham Court Road Underground Station, my shoes got literally soaked. They were underwater.

I was careful when drying them not to let them near heat sources like radiators because that could crack the leather (something I learned from schoolboy football).

Nevertheless, they were totally buggered.

I’ve had them in my wardrobe ever since then, with the intention to get them restored.

Last month, I took them to my local Timpsons. Timpsons is a shop for shoe repairs, leatherwork and watch repairs.

Here’s what they looked like beforehand.

Totally buggered right?

Timpsons quoted me GBP 70 for a leather resole which included a cream treatment of the uppers or I could opt for the full resole which would give me all of the above but also a new heel. This would be GBP 90.

GBP 90???? At this point, you might be thinking, ‘Why don’t you just buy a new pair of shoes?’

GBP 90 could buy some decent shoes, couldn’t they? Or even if not, that GBP 90 could be put towards the cost of a new pair of shoes?

In my head, I knew that the cost of a new similar pair of Grensons is around GBP 200.

I also love the shape of these half-brogues. They look slimline in all the right places and the view from above is very satisfying.

The thinking around quality English shoes (shoes made by certain brands: Cheaney, Crockett and Jones, Churches, Loakes, Grensons etc) is that, as long as there isn’t too much damage to them, they will be able to be restored i.e. resoled and refurbished.

I bit the bullet and went for the full resole and refurbishment at GBP 90.

Here’s the result:

What do I think?

If I’m honest, I don’t love them anymore.

I was disappointed with the level of shine. They’ve definitely lost their lustre.

Brand new, these shoes have a high-shine finish. Now, they don’t.

This isn’t Timpson’s fault.

It was mine for letting them get ruined in the first place.

Would I resole again?

Absolutely for minor damage like the leather sole getting a hole in them. You’d still have a great shoe and it would be wrong to throw them out for such minor damage. You’d also save GBP 100 on not buying a new pair of shoes immediately.

But for the level of damage my shoes had, I wouldn’t do it again because I’m not happy with the results. Timpsons did the best they could but they have lost their magic.

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